Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.013378 0.015151 0.017074 0.019315 0.021857 0.024652 0.027958
2025-06-29 0.010355 0.012741 0.015552 0.019113 0.023508 0.028761 0.035530
2025-07-06 0.008462 0.011014 0.014196 0.018459 0.024034 0.031093 0.040735
2025-07-13 0.007637 0.010410 0.014032 0.019116 0.026091 0.035350 0.048627
2025-07-20 0.006944 0.009852 0.013804 0.019581 0.027842 0.039271 0.056367
2025-07-27 0.006428 0.009452 0.013712 0.020169 0.029752 0.043513 0.064896
2025-08-03 0.005797 0.008804 0.013180 0.020036 0.030560 0.046191 0.071336
2025-08-10 0.005296 0.008287 0.012774 0.020020 0.031497 0.049086 0.078310
2025-08-17 0.004787 0.007703 0.012199 0.019669 0.031852 0.051077 0.083994
2025-08-24 0.004475 0.007394 0.012015 0.019903 0.033130 0.054593 0.092413
2025-08-31 0.004124 0.006985 0.011630 0.019762 0.033761 0.057080 0.099304
2025-09-07 0.003927 0.006812 0.011610 0.020219 0.035419 0.061391 0.109669
2025-09-14 0.003532 0.006273 0.010938 0.019514 0.035034 0.062223 0.114086
2025-09-21 0.003254 0.005912 0.010544 0.019259 0.035422 0.064439 0.121211
2025-09-28 0.002944 0.005467 0.009958 0.018602 0.035009 0.065154 0.125579
2025-10-05 0.002856 0.005419 0.010084 0.019265 0.037097 0.070635 0.139509
2025-10-12 0.002747 0.005323 0.010109 0.019734 0.038849 0.075617 0.152910
2025-10-19 0.002662 0.005263 0.010197 0.020326 0.040887 0.081309 0.168242
2025-10-26 0.002496 0.005030 0.009930 0.020192 0.041457 0.084141 0.177952
2025-11-02 0.002357 0.004839 0.009731 0.020176 0.042259 0.087495 0.189044
2025-11-09 0.002193 0.004585 0.009383 0.019822 0.042323 0.089326 0.197018
2025-11-16 0.002102 0.004474 0.009320 0.020058 0.043656 0.093919 0.211453
2025-11-23 0.001982 0.004291 0.009089 0.019916 0.044153 0.096757 0.222206